Air travel between Western Europe and the Middle East is anticipated to expand significantly during the upcoming winter season, driven by the restoration of flights to Israel and increased activity by Gulf and European airlines. An analysis by OAG Schedules Analyser predicts a total of 41 million two-way seats, representing a 14.7% rise compared to last winter, marking it as the largest growth market in absolute capacity worldwide.
This growth is primarily fueled by the resurgence of service to Israel, following suspensions during the Gaza conflict. Regions such as Italy, France, Greece, Germany, and the UK are experiencing double-digit capacity increases on Israel routes, including notable rises from major European hubs like Rome, Frankfurt, London, and Paris. Several airlines are introducing or reinstating routes, including KLM, SAS, Wizz Air, and Transavia France, using aircraft models such as the Boeing 737-900, Airbus A320neo, Airbus A321neo, and Boeing 737-800.
Market Evolution and Airline Strategies
European carriers are restoring frequencies and redeploying aircraft to meet demand, while Middle Eastern giants like Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Turkish Airlines are boosting capacity by over 450,000 seats each. Notably, Etihad Airlines plans a 17.3% expansion, Emirates a 5.1%, and Turkish Airlines 15.6%, reflecting a broad-based recovery in connectivity. Several key routes are seeing substantial capacity increases, including Dubai-London Heathrow, Doha-London Heathrow, and Dubai-Milan Malpensa.
Overall, capacity to Israel is expected to reach 4.9 million two-way seats this winter, still below pre-pandemic levels. The growth signifies a positive trajectory for international air travel and regional stability, with new and restored routes supporting economic and cultural exchanges across the regions.
