Brazil is poised to significantly increase its consumption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) starting in 2027, with projections indicating a rise to 0.03 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2035. This growth is part of the country's broader efforts to reduce emissions in its transport sector, driven by targets set forth by international and national climate schemes such as Corsia and ProBioQAV.
Key Brazilian companies, including Petrobras and Acelen, are investing in research and development for SAF production, while plans from Brasa Biofuels are currently under review following legal restructuring. The country's energy plan emphasizes that SAF will constitute about 12% of domestic energy demand related to passenger air transport by 2035, as detailed in the 2035 Ten-Year Energy Plan (PDE).
Transport Sector Energy Trends
Despite advances in electrification in certain niches like last-mile freight, fossil fuels like diesel and ethanol will continue to dominate. The PDE projects a steady increase in diesel oil B consumption, expected to reach 57.5 billion liters in 2035. Hydrous ethanol consumption is also set to grow at 5.3% annually, mainly displacing gasoline demand. Overall energy demand in transport is anticipated to reach 115 Mtoe, with road transport representing the vast majority at 93%.
"The initiatives to promote SAF and renewable energy sources underline Brazil’s commitment to emission reduction and sustainable growth,"
said an industry analyst. The expansion of rail and waterway transportation is also expected to contribute to sector sustainability, with network lengths and waterborne activity projected to grow substantially over the period.
Passenger vehicle activity is forecasted to increase, with vehicle registrations reaching 3.8 million units by 2035. Light vehicle electrification will proceed gradually, reaching approximately 6%, while flex-fuel vehicles will continue to dominate at 87%. Public transportation investments aim to further expand urban bus and metro activities, particularly in major cities like São Paulo.
