China’s civil aviation industry is experiencing a notable slowdown in investment during 2025, following years of rapid infrastructure growth. Despite a forecasted decline of over 30% in fixed-asset investment — equating to around 640 billion yuan ($90 billion) during the 14th Five-Year Plan — the overall sector investment is still projected to increase by 38% for the current period, according to officials.
International connectivity has expanded, with 187 cities in 80 countries linked to China’s civil aviation network, including connections with 61 Belt and Road countries. Passenger traffic has increased to over 100 million in 2025, representing an 18.2% rise compared to last year. However, international flights handled 610,000 in the first nine months, a 15.9% growth, yet only reaching 83.6% of pre-pandemic levels.
Outlook for Passenger and Cargo Growth
The sector expects to see approximately 770 million passenger trips and a transport turnover of 166 billion ton-kilometers in 2025, falling short of the targets of 930 million and 175 billion respectively. Conversely, cargo and mail volumes are anticipated to exceed expectations, hitting 10 million tons. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions have also yielded positive results, though industry uncertainties due to an increasingly complex environment remain a concern for future recovery and growth.
