Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a sharp increase in jet fuel prices across Europe, with prices more than doubling since February. The conflict involving Iran, the US, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a key maritime route—has severely impacted fuel supplies and contributed to rising costs for airlines and travelers alike.
Marina Efthymiou, an aviation management professor at Dublin City University, noted that European jet fuel prices climbed from approximately €68.27 ($80) per barrel to €153.84 ($180) over a few months, according to data from the International Air Transport Association. She warned that high fuel prices, which account for up to half of airline operating costs, could threaten airline profitability if not managed carefully.
In addition to escalating prices, an imminent jet fuel shortage is anticipated, with the International Energy Agency suggesting Europe has only about six weeks of supply remaining. The continent relies on domestic production for most of its fuel needs, but a significant portion—about 500,000 barrels daily—used to come from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now largely impassable due to geopolitical strife.
Airlines have responded by increasing ticket prices and implementing surcharges. Notably, Air France-KLM imposed a €100 surcharge on long-haul flights, while Lufthansa announced plans to reduce short-haul flights by 20,000 over six months. Scandinavian Airlines is also reducing its schedule, canceling approximately 1,000 flights.
The rise in airfares reflects broader industry concerns. Teneo's recent report indicates that airfares have increased by 24% over the past year. Experts warn that ongoing uncertainty about fuel availability and costs will likely lead to higher ticket prices, fewer available seats, and fewer promotional fares for travelers.
European airline and airport groups are urging policymakers to implement immediate measures, such as relaxing fuel regulations and temporarily suspending the Emissions Trading System, to alleviate capacity and supply pressures. The European Commission has launched the AccelerateEU initiative to monitor fuel stocks and coordinate supply among member states.
In response to fears of shortages, fuel-exporting nations like South Korea are limiting exports to preserve their own supplies. European authorities emphasize the importance of regional cooperation but acknowledge that these short-term actions may not fully prevent shortages if the conflict persists. European Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas has called for strategic planning, avoiding panic while preparing for possible disruptions, including exploring increased imports and alternative supply routes.
