The aviation industry in Europe faces significant challenges in supplying sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as regulations mandate increased adoption. A recent report by Scandinavian airline SAS warns that by 2030, the continent will experience a supply shortfall in SAF, primarily due to the lack of dedicated production infrastructure in the region.
The report titled “The Need for e-SAF in Scandinavia,” highlights a growing mismatch between the regulatory demands set by the European Union and the current capacity to produce electro-sustainable aviation fuel. With no European facility having reached a final investment decision, airlines could be exposed to rising costs and operational risks as demand outstrips supply.
Implications for airlines and the industry
According to SAS, Scandinavian aviation alone will require over 36,000 tonnes of e-SAF by 2030, increasing to more than 330,000 tonnes by 2040. Achieving this target will necessitate the swift establishment of multiple dedicated production plants, which are currently absent. The airline warns that without appropriate investments, prices for e-SAF could rise significantly, potentially impacting ticket prices and network connectivity.
Industry stakeholders have been urged to accelerate infrastructure development and policy support to meet these future demands. Failing to do so could result in a market where mandated demand exceeds supply, leading to increased costs and operational vulnerabilities for European airlines.
The report concludes that proactive measures are necessary for Europe to maintain its leadership in green aviation fuels and to avoid a supply crisis that could hinder ambitious decarbonisation goals.
