The aviation industry across Europe faces mounting challenges in aligning growth with climate mitigation goals. Despite the promising potential of hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels, rapid air traffic expansion risks undermining efforts to limit temperature rise caused by sectoral emissions. Recent models incorporating fleet evolution, fuel supply, and policy scenarios reveal that technological advancements alone may not suffice. To meet the Paris Agreement targets, demand reduction strategies and demand management are crucial, especially considering non-CO2 impacts such as NOx emissions and contrails, which significantly influence climate change.
Using advanced simulation techniques, the study projects potential emissions trajectories from 2024 through 2070. The analysis indicates that while adoption of hydrogen-powered aircraft and synthetic fuels can reduce CO2 emissions substantially, persistent growth in air traffic could still lead to overshooting climate impact limits. These findings underscore the importance of comprehensive policy approaches that incorporate demand controls and technological innovations, rather than relying solely on offset schemes like CORSIA that do not fully account for non-CO2 effects.
Policy Implications and Future Outlook
To achieve true climate neutrality, the aviation sector must balance technological development with demand management, possibly involving regional demand reduction and modal shifts. Infrastructure development for hydrogen and sustainable fuels represents a significant logistical challenge, requiring coordinated efforts across Europe, including countries like the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Ultimately, the findings point toward a need for accelerated policy actions to ensure that the sector’s growth trajectory aligns with global climate targets, fostering an equitable and sustainable aviation future.
