Global aircraft delivery shortfalls in 2025 have reached at least 5,300 aircraft, posing a major challenge to the aviation industry’s growth. According to Stuart Fox, director for flight and technical operations at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the order backlog has now surpassed 17,000 aircraft, accounting for nearly 60% of the active fleet.
Fox explained that the backlog represents nearly 12 years of current production capacity, up from usual levels of 30-40%. Although aircraft deliveries have begun to increase in late 2025 and are expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is forecasted to outpace aircraft and engine availability. The normalization of the supply-demand mismatch is unlikely before 2031 to 2034 due to ongoing production losses and a record-high backlog.
Impact on Fleet Age and Supply Chain
The average fleet age has increased to 15.1 years, with passenger aircraft averaging 12.8 years, cargo aircraft 19.6 years, and wide-body fleet 14.5 years. Fox highlighted that production delays are exacerbated by factors such as airframe production outstripping engine manufacturing, longer aircraft certification processes, and tariffs resulting from US-China trade tensions. Skilled labor shortages in engine and component manufacturing further constrain production ramp-up plans.
"The fragility of the aerospace supply chain could become an acute constraint amid economic uncertainty, shifting tariff regimes, and tight labor markets,"
said Fox, noting that small disruptions can escalate into significant delays.
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This situation underscores the broader challenges faced by the aerospace sector in maintaining supply chain resilience and meeting the growing demand for new aircraft.
