The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East since February 28 has cast significant uncertainty over the aviation sector, particularly affecting African airlines that depend heavily on trade and passenger flows through regional and Gulf routes. Despite early signs of recovery, with passenger demand increasing by 11.7% in January 2026, the ongoing conflict threatens to disrupt cargo shipments, supply chains, and expensive fuel supplies, which could erode profit margins further.
Experts warn that prolonged airspace disruptions may lead to delays and cancellations of critical cargo and passenger flights, especially those linking Africa with Gulf and Asian markets. Uganda Airlines' Chief Commercial Officer, Adedayo Olawuyi, indicated that perishables traded to Dubai and business travelers could be among the first casualties of such disruptions. Dubai has become a major sourcing hub and tourism destination for African traders and tourists alike.
The regional aviation industry, although small—accounting for just over 2% of global traffic—has shown resilience. Cargo volumes between Africa and Asia grew by over 41% in January, yet geopolitical tensions could swiftly reverse this growth. Willie Walsh of IATA emphasized the importance of resolving conflicts peacefully to prevent further harm to the cargo and passenger sectors. Costs such as fuel and insurance—already high in Africa—could spike, putting additional pressure on airlines' margins.
In the longer term, the conflict's impact will be a balancing act between economic recovery and regional stability. Industry forums like the upcoming World Cargo Symposium will be essential for devising strategies to bolster resilience in a volatile geopolitical environment.
