Thailand's aviation industry shows signs of a strong recovery, supported by a 15% increase in tourist arrivals year-on-year and a steady growth in passenger and flight volumes in early 2026. Despite regional geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, the sector remains resilient, with Airports of Thailand (AOT) identified as the top stock pick due to anticipated earnings boosts from higher passenger service charges. Data from week 12 of 2026 highlights continuous growth in Chinese and Muslim tourist segments, with total arrivals reaching 680,000 for that week.
Chinese arrivals, at 100,000, marked a 41% YoY increase, reflecting improved travel confidence amid ongoing tensions between China and Japan, which saw a 47% decline in outbound flights. Overall tourist inflows into Thailand for 2026 have reached 8.54 million, though down 3% from last year due to declines from ASEAN, Europe, and the Middle East.
Air Traffic Overview
According to CAAT, air passenger traffic from March 1 to 22 grew by 8% YoY, with domestic flights up 10% and international flights rising 2%. At airports managed by AOT, passenger numbers rose 8%, despite declines at Phuket and Hat Yai airports. Flight activity increased by 5%, with minor declines at Phuket due to international flight reductions.
Outbound flights from China experienced a 47% decrease to Japan amid diplomatic tensions, but flights to South Korea and Thailand grew by 16%, supported by safe travel perceptions. Fuel prices surged, with jet kerosene at USD 229.96 per barrel—up 167% YoY—and Brent crude at USD 104.57, up 43% YoY, adding to operational cost concerns. The Thai baht depreciated to 32.75 per USD, affecting currency stability.
Market analysts remain optimistic about Thailand’s aviation sector prospects, emphasizing Chinese tourism’s comeback, industry resilience, and potential benefits from shifting airline hubs within Asia. Prime stock picks include Airports of Thailand, AAV, BA, and SAV, supported by positive growth indicators despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
