The Thai tourism sector is showing signs of resilience and expected growth in early 2026, supported by positive tourism forecasts and strategic promotional activities.
Recent market movements reflect investor confidence, with shares of key airlines like Asia Aviation, Bangkok Airways, and Thai Airways experiencing notable gains during the morning trading session.
Tourism Outlook and Sector Analysis
According to KGI Securities, the first quarter of 2026 is expected to sustain the high season typically observed in the final quarter of 2025. Although last year saw a contraction in international arrivals, projections indicate an overall improvement from February onwards, partly driven by the Lunar New Year holiday period, which boosts Chinese tourism.
"We anticipate an uptick in travel from China, especially given recent restrictions lifted after bans on travel to Japan," said an analyst at KGI Securities.
The government and tourism bodies have intensified promotional efforts, including appointing Lalisa ‘Lisa’ Manoban as an ambassador, to attract more visitors and bolster sector growth. Despite these positive indicators, KGI maintains a neutral stance on the airline sector, citing limited upside potential with target prices of THB 1.35 for AAV and THB 10.50 for THAI.
Overall, while the sector faces uncertainties, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic with targeted strategies to support recovery and growth in international tourism.
