Delta cuts 2026 profit forecast as fuel bill rises by $6 billion

Delta Air Lines cut its full-year 2026 profit forecast on 9 October 2026, saying higher fuel costs had outpaced gains from higher fares and strong demand, even as it reported record third-quarter revenue. According to AeroTime, the airline now expects adjusted earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 per share, down from $6.50 to $7.50 forecast in July.

The numbers behind the cut

Delta expects its annual fuel bill to be $6 billion higher than in 2025, both AeroTime and Live and Let's Fly report. AeroTime says Chief Financial Officer Erik Snell stated that third-quarter fuel spending was more than $500 million above what Delta anticipated in July. The adjusted fuel bill rose 62% to $4.1 billion, and the adjusted operating margin fell to 9.4% from 11.1% a year earlier.

Non-fuel costs per available seat mile also rose 7.3%. AeroTime says Delta blamed higher crew and revenue-related expenses spread across less capacity growth than planned, plus summer storms. For the fourth quarter, Delta expects an adjusted fuel price of about $4.25 per gallon, up from $3.61 in the third quarter, including savings of about 40 cents per gallon from its refinery.

Record revenue and premium demand

Adjusted third-quarter revenue reached a record $17.6 billion, up 16%, with little change in overall capacity, according to AeroTime. Delta expects fourth-quarter revenue to rise about 20%. Premium cabin revenue grew 18% on 6% more premium seats, with higher fares and fuller cabins. Economy unit revenue rose 17% even though Delta reduced economy seats, and the airline plans slightly more seats overall in the fourth quarter but fewer in economy.

Adjusted net income rose 2% to $1.13 billion, or $1.72 per share, while reported net income fell 47% to $756 million, AeroTime says. The adjusted figures exclude certain investment gains and losses and fuel-hedging items. Live and Let's Fly gives adjusted pre-tax profit of $1.5 billion for the quarter, and notes that Delta's reported revenue was $20.2 billion because the adjusted figure excludes third-party refinery sales.

Other details

American Express payments rose 15%, putting Delta on track for more than $9 billion from the partnership this year, AeroTime reports. Delta took delivery of 13 aircraft in the quarter, including A350-900s, A321neos and A220-300s. Employees are on track to share nearly $900 million in profit sharing, paid in February 2027.

Live and Let's Fly adds that United reports on 20 October, and that its July guidance assumed recovering most of its higher fuel costs through revenue. The outlet is cautious about calling Delta weak, noting it remains profitable but with narrower margins.

What this means for travellers

Delta has not announced fare changes, but the results point to continued pressure on prices. Live and Let's Fly says airlines will keep trying to recover higher costs for as long as travellers keep paying, and its author expects much higher holiday fares than last year, citing pared-back autumn schedules and the loss of Spirit. That is the outlet's expectation rather than a Delta statement.

• Fewer economy seats on Delta could make cheaper fares harder to find, though Delta has not said how this will affect pricing.
• Premium cabins are selling well at higher prices, so upgrades may be costlier.
• Booking winter and holiday trips early may help, although the sources do not say when fares will peak.

Whether competitors will follow with similar guidance should become clearer when United reports.

Sources: AeroTime; Live and Let's Fly.